Recent stock move puts Old National Bancorp in focus

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is back on investors’ radar after a recent share price move, with the stock last closing at US$23.94 and posting mixed short term returns across the past week and month.

That recent share price move sits within a steady trend, with a 1-year total shareholder return of 19.13% and a 3-year total shareholder return above 2x, suggesting momentum has been building over time.

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With Old National Bancorp trading at US$23.94 alongside an indicated intrinsic discount of about 52% and a 3 value score, the real question is whether this represents a genuine mispricing or a stock price that already reflects future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued

Old National Bancorp’s most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about $27.91, compared with the last close at $23.94, framing a meaningful discount.

The recently closed Bremer Bank partnership, completed ahead of schedule, has significantly expanded ONB's balance sheet and capital position, supporting both current earnings momentum and future loan growth; this positions ONB to benefit from ongoing migration and economic strengthening in its Midwest/South footprint, driving long-term revenue and EPS growth.

Want to see what sits behind that outlook? The narrative leans on a mix of revenue expansion, fatter margins, and a tighter future earnings multiple. The full set of assumptions shows how those pieces line up to support the $27.91 fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $27.91 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this narrative can break if Old National's commercial real estate exposure runs into trouble, or if competition keeps loan growth and fee income below analysts' assumptions.

Next Steps

If this all sounds constructive, it is worth checking the full picture for yourself and deciding how much weight to put on the optimism; you can start by reviewing the 4 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.