Why On Holding’s new guidance matters now

On Holding (NYSE:ONON) just paired its latest earnings release with fresh 2026 guidance, telling investors it expects net sales to grow at least 23% year over year on a constant currency basis.

This update comes alongside fourth quarter and full year 2025 figures. Together, they give you a clearer snapshot of how current sales and profit trends line up with the company’s revenue ambitions for the year ahead.

At a share price of $46.76, the stock has had a 3.3% 30 day share price return and a 3.6% 90 day share price return. The three year total shareholder return of about 2x suggests longer term momentum has been much stronger than the last year’s slightly negative total shareholder return.

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With shares near $46.76, a value score of 1, and the stock trading at roughly a 9% discount to one intrinsic estimate and about 33% below the average analyst target, is there still an opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.5% Undervalued

Against the last close at $46.76, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $61.90, using an 8.68% discount rate and detailed long term forecasts.

The acceleration in DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and e-commerce channels, with DTC reaching new highs (41.1% of sales in Q2 and up 54% YoY), gives On more control over brand, pricing, and customer data while increasing gross and EBITDA margins. This is an operational catalyst likely to further expand profitability as DTC continues its mix shift.

Curious what has to happen for that fair value to make sense? Revenue growth, margin expansion, and a future earnings multiple all need to line up. The narrative spells out those assumptions clearly, but the exact hurdles might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $61.90 (UNDERVALUED)

However, if premium pricing starts to push customers away or wholesale order growth in key regions slows, that would support a very different story from this upside case.

Another way to look at the valuation

The first narrative leans on long term forecasts and a fair value of $61.90, which points to upside from the current $46.76 share price. However, the current P/E of 54.2x tells a different story when you compare it with the available numbers.

That 54.2x P/E is far above the US Luxury industry at 20.6x, above peers at 31.8x, and also ahead of the fair ratio of 30.2x that the market could move toward over time. If sentiment cools, could a shift closer to that fair ratio pull the share price down instead of up?

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution has you thinking harder about the story, act while the data is fresh and check the 3 key rewards for yourself.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.