Confirmation that TMC the metals (TMC) has a complete consolidated deep sea mining application with U.S. regulators, along with new NOAA rules that can shorten permitting timelines, has pushed this early stage minerals story back into focus.

The confirmation of TMC's complete U.S. mining application and the new NOAA rules arrive after a sharp share price reset, with a 30 day share price return of a 19.9% decline and a 90 day share price return of a 36.4% decline. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 160.8% and 3 year total shareholder return of around 5x suggest earlier investors have already experienced very large swings in value.

If you are interested in how other critical minerals names are trading around key regulatory and project milestones, it could be worth scanning 27 best rare earth metal stocks.

With a US$4.59 share price, a roughly US$2b market value and a much wider analyst price target, plus a sharply wider 1 year return but deeper recent pullback, is this a reset entry point or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 59% Undervalued

With TMC the metals last closing at $4.59 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $11.20, the gap between price and narrative value is wide and rooted in very specific project and permitting assumptions.

The pivot to the U.S. regulatory regime with NOAA, combined with President Trump's executive order and proposed streamlined permitting, positions the company to potentially secure a Commercial Recovery Permit and align with policy support for domestic critical minerals. This would be a key trigger for future revenue visibility and capital access.

Want to see why this narrative leans so heavily on future profitability and valuation multiples, rather than current revenue? The fair value hinges on projected earnings, margin assumptions and a future profit multiple that sits well above typical sector levels. Curious how those ingredients fit together to justify an $11.20 value from a $4.59 starting point?

Result: Fair Value of $11.20 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on securing a NOAA Commercial Recovery Permit and managing ongoing cash burn, where permitting setbacks or funding gaps could quickly change the story.

Next Steps

Given the mix of optimism and concern running through this story, it makes sense to look at the numbers yourself and move quickly while sentiment is in flux, then weigh the balance of potential upside and downside by checking the 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.