Smelter expansion and auditor change put United States Antimony (UAMY) in focus

United States Antimony (UAMY) is drawing fresh attention after commissioning its new Thompson Falls antimony smelter, with the first of nine gas fired furnaces online and renovation of the older facility deferred to 2027.

That smelter commissioning and the routine auditor change are landing against a sharp pullback, with the share price down 31.7% over 30 days but a very large 3 year total shareholder return. Recent momentum looks to be fading after a strong multi year run.

If this antimony move has your attention, it could be a good moment to look across the broader rare earths space and see what stands out in the 27 best rare earth metal stocks

With United States Antimony’s share price down sharply over the past month but still showing a very large 3 year total return, and analyst targets sitting higher than today’s US$7.28, is this weakness a fresh opportunity, or is the smelter upgrade already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 44.3% Undervalued

United States Antimony’s most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of $13.06 against the last close at $7.28, framing a wide gap that hinges on aggressive growth and margin assumptions.

US Antimony is expanding its domestic processing capacity (for example, a sixfold increase at the Thompson Falls facility is expected by year-end) and increasing ore supply both from its own Montana/Alaska projects and multiple new international sources. This combination is expected to drive higher production volumes and sustained revenue growth through increased throughput and supply security.

Want to see what kind of revenue curve and profit turnaround would justify that gap? The narrative leans on rapid scaling, sharply higher margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into a single fair value number, and how sensitive it is to even small execution slips?

Result: Fair Value of $13.06 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upside story still leans heavily on obtaining permits for the Alaska and Ontario projects in a timely manner and on avoiding supply disruptions from a relatively concentrated ore base.

Another Check Using Sales Multiples

While the analyst narrative points to a fair value of $13.06 and an undervalued story, the current P/S of 27.5x is far above the US Metals and Mining industry at 2.6x, peers at 6.7x, and the fair ratio of 5.7x. This hints at meaningful downside risk if sentiment cools.

For a closer look at how these sales based signals stack up against the wider market and peer group, and what that could mean for your risk tolerance, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed signals so far, right? If you want to move quickly and build your own view from the ground up, start by weighing the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.