Q1 earnings event and why it matters for VEON stock

VEON (NasdaqGS:VEON) reported first quarter 2026 earnings with sales of US$1,201 million, up from US$1,026 million a year earlier, while net income and earnings per share from continuing operations held steady.

Alongside these results, the company raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to 11% to 14% year over year and kept its EBITDA growth guidance unchanged, which signals how management currently views the balance between expansion and profitability.

VEON’s share price has softened recently, with a 90 day share price return down 9.9% and year to date down 5.1%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of about 1.5x still reflects earlier momentum as the market weighs new guidance, digital growth initiatives and ongoing buybacks.

If VEON’s earnings update has you thinking about where growth and capital returns might come from next, this could be a good moment to scan 20 top founder-led companies

With VEON trading at US$50.00, sitting on a 92% intrinsic discount estimate and about 66% below analyst targets, the key question is whether this gap reflects mispricing or if markets are already factoring in that expected growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.1% Undervalued

With VEON last closing at $50.00 against a fair value estimate of about $79.52, the most widely followed narrative frames the stock as materially discounted, built on a thesis that leans heavily on digital growth across its core markets.

VEON is aggressively expanding digital service offerings (including fintech, super apps, ride-hailing, entertainment, and AI-driven products) in emerging markets that are rapidly digitalizing and seeing surging demand for mobile internet and data; this positions the company to achieve significant ongoing subscriber growth and strong ARPU uplift, directly supporting future revenue and EBITDA growth.

Want the full picture behind that valuation gap? The narrative focuses on steady top line expansion, thicker margins and a future earnings multiple below many telecom peers. Curious which assumptions really do the heavy lifting in that model?

The narrative applies a discount rate of about 7.5%, incorporates projected revenue and earnings growth, and arrives at a fair value around $79.52 for VEON. That implies a sizeable gap to the current share price, but the conclusion depends on whether you agree with those cash flow paths and the future P/E used in the model. Result: Fair Value of $79.52 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story can shift quickly if currency swings in markets like Pakistan or Ukraine hit reported earnings, or if high debt and refinancing needs strain cash flows.

Next Steps

With the mix of optimism around growth and concern about risk in this story, it makes sense to move quickly and test the assumptions yourself by weighing up the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.