VinFast’s delivery surge and what it could mean for VFS stock

VinFast Auto (NasdaqGS:VFS) more than doubled its electric vehicle deliveries in 2025, topped its own guidance, and set a higher 2026 target, putting fresh attention on how these volumes line up with the current share price.

The 26.33% year to date share price return, including a 28.23% gain over the last 90 days, suggests momentum has been building as investors react to the delivery beat and higher 2026 target. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 58.46% decline shows earlier buyers are still well under water.

If VinFast’s delivery ramp has you thinking about where else growth and sentiment might be aligning, it could be worth scanning the EV supply chain and related technologies via our 32 robotics and automation stocks

With deliveries climbing, a US$9.8b market cap and a US$4.27 share price sitting below the average analyst target, the key question is whether VFS is still on sale or if the market already reflects expectations for growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 32.2% Undervalued

With VinFast Auto’s most followed narrative putting fair value at $6.30 versus a $4.27 last close, the gap between story and share price is front and center.

Ongoing expansion and accelerated adoption of electric vehicles in key emerging markets, particularly Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, supported by rising urbanization and a growing middle class, are set to drive sustained volume growth and revenue expansion as VinFast continues broadening its product portfolio and increases market penetration.

Want to see what sits behind that optimism on volume and revenue growth? The narrative leans on rapid top line expansion, improving margins and a rich future earnings multiple. Curious how those ingredients add up to a higher fair value than today’s price?

Result: Fair Value of $6.30 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story still runs up against heavy cash burn and sustained losses, as well as intense EV competition that could pressure margins and future volumes.

Another angle from multiples

The narrative prices VFS at $6.30, but the market is already paying a rich P/S of 2.9x, compared with 0.6x for the US auto sector and 1.7x for peers. The fair ratio sits at just 0.2x, which points to valuation risk if sentiment cools.

Before leaning too hard on any single story or ratio, it can help to see how the current pricing compares with what the numbers suggest in different scenarios, and where you would personally draw the line on risk and reward in this kind of stock. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between the upside in deliveries and the pressure from losses, it pays to run the numbers yourself and decide quickly where you stand. To help balance that view, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.