A New Food Inflation Shock May Be Coming— And Fertilizer Prices Are The Warning Sign
Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter on Thursday warned that food prices could rise further as fertilizer costs surge amid disruptions tied to the Iran conflict, sharing a recent DoubleLine Capital LP commentary on the issue.
The market commentary account said food is set to become "even more expensive" as global fertilizer prices have surged 44% since the start of the war, reaching the highest level since 2022. The account added that roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
"We believe a new wave of global food inflation is imminent," The Kobeissi Letter said in a post on X.
The account also noted that the Strait of Hormuz disruption affects 23% of global ammonia trade, 34% of urea supply and nearly 20% of phosphate supply. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex, which tracks futures prices for crops including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee and cotton, has also risen about 9% since the conflict escalated.
The DoubleLine commentary cited World Bank Commodities Price Data showing fertilizer prices have surged 44% since the start of the war, while the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has risen 9%. The commentary warned that rising fertilizer costs could pressure farm margins, reduce fertilizer usage and eventually tighten future crop supply.
Fertilizer Costs Surge
A recent "Between the Lines" commentary from DoubleLine Capital LP warned that fertilizer prices are rising much faster than agricultural output prices, squeezing farmers before consumers see the effects at grocery stores.
The commentary said fertilizer, fuel, freight and seed costs are rising while crop prices have not increased enough to offset higher production expenses.
DoubleLine also warned that farmers may reduce fertilizer usage or shift toward less fertilizer-intensive crops to protect margins. That could reduce future crop yields and tighten food supply later this year.
Food Inflation Concerns
Economist Justin Wolfers also warned Wednesday that food inflation risks are building as fertilizer supplies remain exposed to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
"The big story right now is oil. The next story is food," Wolfers wrote on X.
Higher fertilizer costs have already pushed urea prices to approximately $900 per metric ton, the highest level since 2022, according to earlier reports.
The World Bank previously warned fertilizer prices could rise another 31% in 2026 if disruptions continue, potentially worsening global food insecurity and pressuring farm profitability.
Global Food Prices Rise
The latest fertilizer surge comes as global food prices were already trending higher.
Earlier this month, the Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index rose for a third straight month in April, driven by gains in vegetable oils, cereals and meat prices.
The agency also cited high fertilizer costs and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz as risks to future wheat production and agricultural supply.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grew 1.17% to $99.41/barrel at press time, while Brent crude surged 1.08% to $106.2/barrel, adding further pressure to fertilizer and agricultural input costs.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.
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