AC Immune SA (NASDAQ:ACIU) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. AC Immune delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (CHF15m) and statutory earnings per share (CHF0.02) falling badly short of analyst expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, AC Immune's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of CHF45.7m in 2026. This would be a huge 161% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to CHF0.41. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CHF36.3m and CHF0.29 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the top line growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$8.62, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on AC Immune, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.07 and the most bearish at US$5.39 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting AC Immune's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6x annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 39% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AC Immune to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at AC Immune. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.62, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AC Immune analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.