One of the biggest stories of last week was how AdaptHealth Corp. (NASDAQ:AHCO) shares plunged 43% in the week since its latest second-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$6.05. It looks like a pretty bad result, given that revenues fell 13% short of analyst estimates at US$740m, and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.99 per share instead of the profit that the analysts had been forecasting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering AdaptHealth provided consensus estimates of US$2.97b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 12% decline over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.75 in 2026. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding AdaptHealth's prospects following the latest results, with a real cut to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The average price target fell 30% to US$9.86, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for AdaptHealth's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AdaptHealth analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 22% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AdaptHealth's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting AdaptHealth to become unprofitable next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AdaptHealth's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AdaptHealth going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with AdaptHealth , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.