The UAE’s decision to fast track a second oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, combined with its exit from OPEC, is reshaping how investors think about oil supply risk and global energy prices. Reliable exports and the potential for higher production from the region can pressure some business models while supporting others that rely on steadier Middle East flows. This article looks at three stocks exposed to that news, highlighting one potential beneficiary of more secure UAE exports and two that could face headwinds if increased supply keeps a lid on longer term oil prices.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Overview: Occidental Petroleum is a Houston based energy company that explores for and produces oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas. It also owns a midstream and marketing business that gathers, processes, transports and sells these products in the United States and overseas.

Operations: Occidental Petroleum generates about US$20.2b from its Oil and Gas operations and US$1.5b from Midstream and Marketing, with roughly US$17.7b of revenue coming from the United States and about US$4.2b from international markets.

Market Cap: US$48.6b

Occidental Petroleum operates in a market that is directly influenced by global oil pricing, so developments such as the UAE’s efforts to add more supply and bypass Hormuz could affect shareholders. The company’s business is closely linked to oil prices, and factors such as pressure on margins, a higher P/E relative to some peers and reliance on external debt may reduce flexibility if prices weaken as additional supply is introduced. Management is focusing on deleveraging and carbon capture projects, which require capital and supportive policies at the same time that oversupply concerns are part of the broader industry landscape. Investors assessing this stock need to consider whether potential future cash flows are appropriate given the combination of pricing risk, balance sheet considerations and execution challenges surrounding the business.

Occidental Petroleum’s higher P/E, debt load and capital hungry carbon projects could be masking pressure points if UAE led supply keeps oil prices capped, so it may be worth reviewing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (SASE:2223)

Overview: Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef produces Group I and Group II base oils and a range of by products such as asphalt, marine fuel, slack wax and sulfur, supplying customers in Saudi Arabia, the wider Middle East, Asia, Africa, Europe and the United States as part of the Saudi Aramco group.

Operations: Luberef generates about SAR8.1b in revenue from its Oil & Gas: Refining & Marketing segment, with around SAR5.2b coming from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and key export markets including the UAE at SAR1.6b, India at SAR538m and South Africa at SAR361m.

Market Cap: SAR20.6b

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company (Luberef) sits in an uncomfortable spot if UAE supply growth chips away at Saudi export pricing power, because its feedstock costs and selling prices are tied to the same regional crude and product benchmarks. While recent results show solid profitability, a 3.71% dividend yield and a business mix that benefits from higher value base oils, investors also have to weigh heavy capital spending, weaker free cash flow coverage of dividends and an entirely borrowed funding base. On top of that, frequent boardroom changes and a new chairman add governance questions just as the company leans into large projects and a more domestic focused sales mix, all of which could matter far more if regional refiners are forced to live with lower margins for longer.

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef’s heavy capital spending, weaker free cash flow cover and fully borrowed funding stack could be masking pressure points, so it may be worth reading the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC (ADX:ADNOCDIST)

Overview: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC operates fuel stations, convenience stores and mobility services, selling gasoline, petroleum products and car care services to both everyday drivers and large commercial or government customers across the UAE and selected regional markets.

Operations: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC generates about AED11.4b from its Commercial (Corporate to Corporate) segment and AED24.9b from its Individual Services (Corporate to Customer) segment.

Market Cap: AED49.4b

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC offers a mix of steady fuel demand and faster growing nonfuel retail at a time when its parent’s expanding export capacity and greater energy security could support long term volumes. The company is pushing hard into higher margin areas like EV charging, convenience retail and quick service restaurants, with Q1 2026 revenue of AED8,833.6m and net income of AED770.67m pointing to earnings that are already meaningful. At the same time, high leverage, an expensive P/E versus regional peers and an unstable dividend history mean you are not getting a free ride on quality. For investors willing to weigh that trade off, the bigger story at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC is only just starting to come into focus.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC appears to have a growth story within its fuel retail business, with EV charging, retail and quick service restaurants expanding alongside fuel volumes, so it may be worth reviewing the analyst forecasts for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.