AECOM (ACM) stock is in focus after the company was selected by ANA Aeroportos de Portugal, part of the VINCI Airports group, to lead the preliminary design for Portugal’s planned New Lisbon Airport.

The New Lisbon Airport contract comes as AECOM’s 1 month share price return of 7.6% contrasts with a year to date share price decline of 22.3%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 36.1% and the 5 year total shareholder return is up 24.2%, suggesting recent momentum has picked up after a weaker period.

If this kind of infrastructure story interests you, it may be a good moment to look at other companies linked to long term projects through the 37 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

AECOM’s recent rebound and the New Lisbon Airport win sharpen the focus on what investors are paying for this story today. After a tough year, does the current valuation still offer an attractive balance between risk and reward?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.5% Undervalued

AECOM's most followed narrative puts fair value at $99.21 compared with the last close of $74.90. That gap is built on a detailed set of growth and profitability assumptions that go well beyond a single contract win like New Lisbon Airport.

Accelerating global and U.S. government-backed infrastructure spending, especially in transportation, water, energy, and data centers, provides multi-year revenue visibility and a record backlog that should support top-line growth and backlog-driven earnings expansion.

Want to understand what is behind a near quarter gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on steady revenue growth, rising margins and a richer earnings base in a few years. Curious which assumptions matter most and how they stack up against today’s $15.99b revenue and $631.3m net income? The full narrative lays out the numbers and the trade offs in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $99.21 (UNDERVALUED)

However, AECOM’s reliance on government-funded projects and rising competition in AI-enabled delivery could still pressure margins and disrupt the current upside narrative.

Another View: AECOM Through The SWS DCF Model

The popular AECOM narrative points to a fair value of $99.21 and a 24.5% undervaluation based on analyst targets and earnings assumptions. The SWS DCF model tells a more cautious story, with a fair value of $72.94 against the current $74.90 price, which implies AECOM trades slightly above that cash flow based estimate.

Both approaches use the same business but ask different questions. One leans on earnings and multiples by 2029; the other focuses on discounted future cash flows. As an investor, which lens feels more realistic for how AECOM might actually convert its contracts into cash?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AECOM for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of AECOM upside and risk feels finely balanced, now is a good time to review the data and stress test your own thesis using the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond AECOM?

If AECOM’s story has sharpened your interest, you can use this momentum to broaden your watchlist with other clear, data-backed opportunities right now.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning for companies that combine quality fundamentals with attractive valuations through the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen the income side of your portfolio by reviewing stocks that aim for reliable payouts and higher yields using the 8 dividend fortresses.
• Prioritise resilience by focusing on companies with lower risk scores and steadier profiles through the 79 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.