• AIB on May 14, 2026 cut its outlook for Ireland’s domestic economy, citing rising global uncertainty tied to Middle East conflict, higher energy prices, and disruption risks around Strait of Hormuz.
• Modified domestic demand seen rising 2.7% in 2026, easing to 2.6% in 2027, then accelerating to 3.2% in 2028 as consumer spending and business investment cool.
• Employment growth forecast to slow to 1.8% in 2026 from 2.2% in 2025; unemployment expected to edge higher as hiring momentum eases.
• Base case inflation forecast set at 4%, with a downside scenario of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption lifting inflation peak to at least 6%-7% through 2026.
• Downside risks centered on extended commodity-market disruption and renewed shifts in US trade policy; upside scenario hinges on easing geopolitical uncertainty supporting stronger spending and investment.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. AIB Group plc published the original content used to generate this news brief on May 14, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.