Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting US$2.7b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 14%, coming in at just US$0.26 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Airbnb's 39 analysts is for revenues of US$13.9b in 2026. This reflects a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 19% to US$5.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$13.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.93 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Airbnb's earnings potential following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.5% to US$156. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Airbnb at US$181 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$110. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Airbnb's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Airbnb's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Airbnb following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Airbnb going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.