AI's Biggest Event Arrives: History Says Nvidia Has an 80% Chance to Rally During GTC—Here Are the Supply Chain Plays to Watch Now
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | 177.39 | +0.93% |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR TSM | 339.04 | -0.72% |
ARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR ARM | 149.11 | -3.84% |
Broadcom Limited AVGO | 314.55 | +0.34% |
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD | 217.50 | +3.47% |
NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US)’s highly anticipated GPU Technology Conference (GTC) kicks off on March 16, with CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver a keynote address at 9 p.m. Saudi time that investors expect will set the tone for the entire artificial intelligence supply chain for the year ahead.
Ahead of the event, Huang has already teased the unveiling of an AI chip "the world has never seen before." As the undisputed leader in the global AI race, all eyes are on whether Nvidia can leverage GTC to reignite its stock momentum.
Here is what to expect from the event, the potential "black technology" reveals, and the supply chain plays worth watching.

Will history repeat? The ‘80% probability’ bull case
The data favors the bulls. According to Sahm Consulting, Nvidia has held 10 GTC technical conferences over the past nine years. During these event windows, Nvidia’s stock has risen 80% of the time, posting an average gain of 6.15%. The most recent comparable event saw the stock surge more than 11% over three days.
This potential catalyst comes at a crucial moment. While sectors like memory and CPO optical modules have rallied, Nvidia shares have largely consolidated around the $170 bottom since last July, despite crushing earnings expectations. Currently, Nvidia’s forward P/E valuation for 2027 (Bloomberg estimates) has compressed to 18x—well below both the S&P 500 average and its own historical norms.
Analysts are pounding the table for a pre-conference entry:
- Citi expects the event to be a positive catalyst, raising its price target to $300. The bank noted that any forward guidance regarding fiscal 2027 sales could trigger a breakout.
- UBS released a preview report for Nvidia's GTC, maintaining a "Buy" rating and a $245 price target. The core viewpoint is: the conference focus will shift from a single chip to system-level optimization and workload disaggregation. The company will consolidate its platform advantages through heterogeneous computing, networking leadership (Nvidia is already the largest networking semiconductor company), and its software stack. Simultaneously, it will emphasize the long-term nature of AI capital expenditures and argue that DRAM remains the key to performance. Although disruptive breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term, the company is expected to enhance confidence in scalability and "tokenomics," driving the stock price upward.
- Morgan Stanley has re-designated Nvidia as a "top pick" in the semiconductor sector, calling the current valuation a rare buying window.
- Bank of America, Truist, and Rosenblatt have all recently hiked their price targets.
The ‘Feynman’ Chip and the 1.6nm Shift
Following Huang’s teasers, the market expects the debut of the "Feynman" platform—Nvidia’s next-generation architecture.
The Feynman chip is rumored to be the first product to use TSMC’s A16 (1.6nm) process, with a focus on ultra-low-latency inference. This technology, dubbed "the world’s smallest node," represents a massive leap for the semiconductor industry. Wccftech analysts believe Nvidia will be the initial—and possibly exclusive—client for TSMC’s A16 volume production. While the Feynman rollout is expected to begin in 2028, with shipments in 2029–2030, the announcement itself could reshape supplier dynamics for giants such as TSMC and ASML.
Additionally, Nvidia is expected to unveil a new inference chip integrating Groq’s "Language Processing Unit" (LPU) technology.
On the memory front, supply chain leaks suggest that Samsung and SK Hynix have been selected as exclusive HBM4 suppliers for the upcoming Vera Rubin flagship architecture, ensuring substantial bandwidth for large-scale model training.
Watch list: The Chip Supply Chain
- Chips: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR(TSM.US), ARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR(ARM.US), Broadcom Limited(AVGO.US), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD.US), Marvell Technology, Inc.(MRVL.US), Intel Corporation(INTC.US)
- Semiconductor Equipment: ASML Holding NV ADR(ASML.US), Applied Materials, Inc.(AMAT.US), Lam Research Corporation(LRCX.US), Teradyne, Inc.(TER.US)
- Data Centers: CoreWeave, Inc. Class A(CRWV.US), Oracle Corporation(ORCL.US), Nebius Group N.V. Class A(NBIS.US), IREN Limited(IREN.US)
- AI Servers: Super Micro Computer, Inc.(SMCI.US), Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C(DELL.US), HP Inc.(HPQ.US)
- Data Storage: Micron Technology, Inc.(MU.US), Sandisk Corporation(SNDK.US)
- Electrical Components: Flex Ltd(FLEX.US), Amphenol Corporation Class A(APH.US), VERTIV HOLDINGS LLC(VRT.US), nVent Electric plc(NVT.US)
- Grid Equipment: BLOOM ENERGY CORP(BE.US), GE Vernova Inc.(GEV.US), Cummins Inc.(CMI.US), Caterpillar Inc.(CAT.US)
Nvidia-Related ETFs
2x Long Nvidia: GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL.US)
2x Short Nvidia: T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF(NVDQ.US) / GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVD.US)
2x Long Nvidia: T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF(NVDX.US)
1x Short Nvidia: Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF(NVDD.US)
NVIDIA’s answer to ‘OpenClaw’: The NemoClaw Agent Platform
Beyond hardware, software is a key focus. Reports suggest Nvidia will launch an open-source AI agent platform internally dubbed "NemoClaw," intended to capitalize on the growing interest in autonomous agents, similar to OpenClaw.
The platform is designed to enable enterprises to deploy AI agents into their workflows to execute specific tasks autonomously. NVIDIA has reportedly begun pitching the product to enterprise software leaders, including Salesforce, Cisco, Google, Adobe, and CrowdStrike. Given the open-source model, partners may contribute code in exchange for early access.
Watch list: The Agent Ecosystem (YTD Performance as of March 10 close)
- Cisco Systems, Inc.(CSCO.US): +1.41%
- Meta Platforms(META.US): -0.91%
- Alphabet Inc. Class C(GOOG.US): -2.12%
- CrowdStrike(CRWD.US): -6.92%
- Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US): -7.17%
- Palo Alto Networks, Inc.(PANW.US): -10.11%
- Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US): -15.91%
- Adobe Systems Incorporated(ADBE.US) : -21.39%
- Oracle Corporation(ORCL.US): -23.15%
- Salesforce.com, inc.(CRM.US): -26.42%
Leading the CPO Revolution: A $4 Billion Bet on Light
A major technical theme at GTC will be optical interconnects—the technology allowing GPU clusters to communicate with high bandwidth and low latency.
Bank of America projects the optical interconnect market will quadruple to $73 billion by 2030. NVIDIA is positioning itself to lead this shift, potentially becoming the first system integrator to replace traditional copper server backplanes with CPO (Co-packaged Optics).
Signaling its commitment, Nvidia recently invested $4 billion to take stakes in two optical heavyweights: Lumentum Holdings, Inc.(LITE.US) and Coherent Corp.(COHR.US). The deal includes multi-year agreements for advanced lasers and optical networking products. Notably, both Lumentum and Coherent are set to join the S&P 500 later this month.
Watch list: CPO & Optical Interconnects (YTD Performance as of March 10 close)
- Lumentum Holdings, Inc.(LITE.US): +82.32%
- Corning Inc(GLW.US): +55.86%
- Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): +41.21%
- Ciena Corporation(CIEN.US): +44.25%
NVIDIA's GTC conference begins next Monday. Which AI supply chain opportunities will you seize in advance? Share your thoughts in the comments!
