Investors in Alamar Foods Company (TADAWUL:6014) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.5% to close at ر.س42.60 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of ر.س279m coming in 7.7% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of ر.س1.88, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, Alamar Foods' three analysts are now forecasting revenues of ر.س1.10b in 2026. This would be a meaningful 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.2% to ر.س2.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ر.س1.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س2.68 in 2026. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a substantial drop in EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.

There's been no major changes to the price target of ر.س60.33, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Alamar Foods, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ر.س70.00 and the most bearish at ر.س44.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alamar Foods' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Alamar Foods is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alamar Foods. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ر.س60.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alamar Foods. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alamar Foods going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.