Overview

• U.S. aluminum producer's Q2 revenue slightly beat analyst expectations, hitting a quarterly record

• Adjusted EPS for Q2 beat analyst expectations

• Company agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for $4.1 bln upfront

Outlook

• Alcoa lowers 2026 alumina production forecast to 9.5-9.6 mln metric tons from prior guidance

• Company lowers 2026 alumina shipments forecast to 11.5-11.6 mln metric tons due to Pinjarra disruptions

• Alcoa expects 3Q26 operational tax expense to be $80 mln to $90 mln, subject to market conditions

Result Drivers

• ALUMINUM PRICES AND SHIPMENTS - Higher aluminum prices and increased shipments, driven by capacity restarts, boosted revenue and Adjusted EBITDA

• SMELTER CAPACITY RESTARTS - Completion and progress on smelter restarts in Spain, Brazil, Norway, and Australia increased aluminum production

• ALUMINA PRODUCTION DISRUPTIONS - Lower alumina production due to instability and gas supply disruptions at Pinjarra refinery weighed on segment results

Company press release: ID:nBwc9Xd52a

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q2 Revenue	Slight Beat*	$3.97 bln	$3.94 bln (8 Analysts)
Q2 Adjusted EPS	Beat	$2.12	$2.06 (8 Analysts)
Q2 EPS		$1.53
Q2 Adjusted Net Income	Slight Miss*	$562 mln	$566.23 mln (6 Analysts)

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 8 "strong buy" or "buy", 5 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the aluminum peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Alcoa Corp is $72.00, about 48.2% above its July 15 closing price of $48.58

• The stock recently traded at 8 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago

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