Alkermes earnings update and new guidance

Alkermes (NasdaqGS:ALKS) stock is in focus after the company reported second quarter 2026 results, issued third quarter and full year earnings guidance that points to a GAAP net loss, and filed a new shelf registration.

The fresh information gives you several moving parts to weigh. Revenue, profitability guidance, previous share repurchases and potential future ordinary share issuance can all affect how you think about Alkermes as an investment idea.

Alkermes shares have been volatile around the recent earnings and guidance update, with a 1-day share price return of 1.65% but a 1-month share price return down 9.43%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 84.09% points to strong longer term momentum.

If Alkermes's recent swings have you thinking about where else growth and risk are shifting in healthcare, it could be worth scanning 42 healthcare AI stocks. You might uncover companies reacting differently to the same headlines.

After that pullback and with Alkermes trading below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, the spread between price and paper value is wide. How much of that gap still looks justified once you unpack the numbers?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.1% Overvalued

At the last close of $49.17, Alkermes sits slightly above the most followed narrative fair value of $47.69, which is built on detailed earnings and orexin pipeline forecasts using an 8.05% discount rate.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $47.69 for Alkermes based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $60.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $34.0.

The core narrative leans heavily on faster earnings growth than revenue, thicker margins, and a future earnings multiple well above the broader biotech group. It is worth considering which specific growth and profitability assumptions would need to hold to support that $47.69 figure and keep Alkermes near its current price, rather than materially higher or lower.

Result: Fair Value of $47.69 (OVERVALUED)

However, the Alkermes story can shift quickly if higher R&D spending on orexin programs does not translate into approvals or if key products face tougher competition.

Another View on Alkermes valuation

The analyst narrative frames Alkermes as 3.1% overvalued at $49.17 versus a $47.69 fair value built on earnings forecasts and future P/E assumptions. Our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with Alkermes trading about 48.5% below an estimated future cash flow value of $95.54. Which lens do you trust more when real cash generation is the focus?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Alkermes for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

The mixed signals around Alkermes can feel conflicting, so it helps to move quickly and test the story against your own process and risk tolerance. To weigh both sides in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Alkermes?

If Alkermes has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use fresh screeners to spot other stocks that better match your goals, risk profile and timeline.

• Target potential mispricings and filter for stronger fundamentals by reviewing opportunities in the 49 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise stability and capital protection by scanning companies highlighted in the 78 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
• Hunt for overlooked opportunities with quality metrics on your side through the screener containing 19 high quality undiscovered gems.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.