Shareholders might have noticed that Allegion plc (NYSE:ALLE) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$137 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.4% to hit US$1.59 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Allegion's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.38b in 2026. This would be a modest 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.1% to US$8.05. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.14 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$168. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Allegion analyst has a price target of US$189 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$150. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Allegion'shistorical trends, as the 7.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.2% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.9% annually. It's clear that while Allegion's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Allegion analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Allegion has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.