Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$516 million and basic EPS of US$0.07, alongside trailing twelve month EPS of US$1.89 on revenue of about US$2.2 billion. This sets a clear snapshot of recent scale and earnings power. Over the past year, the partnership has seen quarterly revenue move between US$516 million and US$571 million, while basic EPS has ranged from US$0.07 to US$0.73, with trailing net profit margin sitting near 11.2%. For investors, that combination of steady top line, moderate profitability and an uncovered high dividend puts the focus squarely on how durable those margins prove to be.

See our full analysis for Alliance Resource Partners.

With the latest earnings picture in place, the next step is to line these numbers up against the prevailing narratives around Alliance Resource Partners to see which views are supported and which might need a rethink.

TTM earnings down from US$308 million to US$243 million

• On a trailing twelve month basis, net income is US$243.3 million compared with US$308.2 million a year earlier, while TTM basic EPS is US$1.89 versus US$2.40 in the prior TTM period.
• Consensus narrative highlights stable coal demand and extended plant lives as supports for earnings. However, the TTM revenue line at about US$2.2b is below the US$2.4b level from a year ago, and TTM net margin of 11.2% is slightly under last year’s 11.7%. This keeps the bullish case tied closely to how well current contracts and the oil and gas royalty segment offset this softer recent profit trend.
  • Supportive factors in the consensus view, such as utility interest in longer term contracts and added oil and gas royalty volumes, sit alongside a year over year decline in TTM net income from US$354.9 million in 2024 Q4 TTM to US$243.3 million in 2026 Q1 TTM.
  • For a beginner investor, the takeaway is that the positive story around demand and diversification needs to be weighed against this step down in recent profits and EPS, not just the forward looking growth assumptions.

Dividend yield at 9.07% with thinner coverage

• The reported trailing 12 month dividend yield of 9.07% is flagged as not well covered by earnings or free cash flow, at the same time that TTM net profit margin has eased from 11.7% to 11.2% and TTM net income is US$243.3 million.
• Critics highlight that weaker coverage of a high yield can strain future payouts, and the bearish narrative around domestic coal exposure is echoed by factors such as management’s move to cut distributions by about US$50 million a year and guidance that 2026 coal pricing could be roughly 5% below 2025 levels. Together these factors point to cash generation needing to work harder if distributions are to stay aligned with current income expectations.
  • The reliance on U.S. coal demand in the narrative, combined with limited export exposure, means any policy or pricing shift would directly affect the cash that supports that 9.07% yield.
  • Even with growing oil and gas royalties mentioned in the narrative, the data provided indicates that segment is still too small to fully offset possible pressure from lower coal pricing and softer net margins if those trends continue.

Bears focus on the mix of a 9.07% yield, softer margins, and U.S. coal exposure, arguing that distribution cuts or weaker cash flow could still be ahead if pricing trends persist. 🐻 Alliance Resource Partners Bear Case

P/E of 14x and DCF fair value at US$81.97

• Units trade on a trailing P/E of 14x at a share price of US$26.47, compared with a peer average P/E of 21.6x, an industry average of 14.9x, and a DCF fair value in the data of US$81.97.
• Supporters of the bullish view point to this gap as a potential value angle, and the figures back that up in two ways. The current price sits well below both the DCF fair value of US$81.97 and a referenced analyst price target of US$30.33, while earnings are forecast to grow about 13.33% a year against revenue growth of roughly 4% a year. The key question for you as an investor is whether the market is fairly cautious about coal and dividends or whether it is underappreciating the forecasted earnings profile.
  • The discount to the DCF fair value is large relative to the current US$26.47 price, which is why value oriented investors often pay close attention to this type of gap.
  • At the same time, the lower P/E versus peers and the industry sits alongside that high but less well covered dividend, so the numbers do not clearly resolve whether the lower multiple is a bargain or a built in warning about future cash flows.

Bulls argue that a 14x P/E, DCF fair value of US$81.97, and forecast 13.33% earnings growth leave meaningful upside if profit margins hold up. 🐂 Alliance Resource Partners Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Alliance Resource Partners on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seeing both caution and optimism in the numbers, it makes sense to review the data yourself and judge how the risks and rewards balance out. To help with that, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Alliance Resource Partners combines thinner dividend coverage, softer trailing earnings and U.S. coal exposure, which together raise questions about income stability and future distributions.

If you are concerned about payout reliability and want income ideas with sturdier coverage, check out the 14 dividend fortresses to quickly compare alternatives that might better fit your risk tolerance.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.