A week ago, Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALTO) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.3% to hit US$246m. Alto Ingredients also reported a statutory profit of US$0.15, which was an impressive 76% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Alto Ingredients' two analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$954.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 40% to US$0.39 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$953.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.42 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 33% to US$9.00, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alto Ingredients' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Alto Ingredients is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 2.3% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 6.0% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Alto Ingredients' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alto Ingredients. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alto Ingredients. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.