Alumis (ALMS) has just wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$1.9 million, a basic EPS loss of US$0.89 per share, and a net loss of US$92.9 million. On a trailing twelve month basis, revenue was US$24.1 million, with a basic EPS loss of US$2.86 per share and a net loss of US$243.3 million. Over recent quarters, revenue moved from US$17.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$2.7 million in Q2, US$2.1 million in Q3, and US$1.9 million in Q4. EPS shifted from a loss of US$1.82 in Q1 to a profit of US$0.78 in Q2, before returning to losses of US$1.06 in Q3 and US$0.89 in Q4. For investors, the latest numbers keep the focus on how quickly Alumis can translate its revenue profile into more stable margins and a clearer path toward easing those losses.

See our full analysis for Alumis.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to consider how these results align with the widely discussed growth versus risk narratives around Alumis and how the new data may influence those views.

US$24.1 million trailing revenue, but TTM loss at US$243.3 million

• Over the last twelve months, Alumis generated US$24.1 million in revenue but still reported a net loss of US$243.3 million and a basic EPS loss of US$2.86. This keeps the story centered on revenue growth that has not yet translated into positive earnings.
• What stands out in the broadly bullish growth narrative is that analysts forecast revenue to grow around 57.9% per year while the company remains loss making, so investors are effectively weighing:
  • Strong top line expectations against a trailing twelve month loss of US$243.3 million that shows costs are still heavy relative to current revenue.
  • A forecast period of at least three more years of unprofitability. This means the bullish view relies on confidence in future scale rather than current margins.

For a fuller picture of how this growth story is being framed by different investors, it helps to see how the numbers feed into the wider community narrative for Alumis Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives.

Forecast 57.9% revenue growth versus ongoing losses

• Analysts expect revenue to grow at about 57.9% per year, yet Alumis is currently unprofitable and is forecast to stay unprofitable over the next three years. Current figures such as the US$92.9 million Q4 loss and US$243.3 million trailing loss anchor the risk side of that growth story.
• Analysts' optimistic stance on growth is tested by the fact that the trailing EPS loss of US$2.86 and consistent quarterly net losses, including US$98.9 million in Q1 2025 and US$110.8 million in Q3 2025, show that:
  • The bullish case leaning on rapid revenue growth has to accommodate several quarters where losses remained above US$90 million even as revenue moved between US$1.9 million and US$17.4 million.
  • The expectation of ongoing unprofitability over the next three years is fully aligned with the recent history of net losses. This means the optimistic view hinges on future revenue scale rather than any current sign of earnings improvement.

P/B of 10.4x with 57.2% implied upside

• Alumis trades on a P/B of 10.4x, which is higher than the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 2x but lower than a peer average of 21.8x. Analysts’ price targets of US$39.40 versus a current share price of US$25.06 imply 57.2% potential upside if those targets are met.
• Critics highlight the bearish angle that a 10.4x P/B and high volatility, together with substantial shareholder dilution over the past year, make the stock look demanding relative to an industry on 2x P/B. However, the data also show that:
  • The same 10.4x multiple is below a peer group average of 21.8x, which is used by some investors to argue that valuation is not extreme within its closer comparison set.
  • Analysts’ implied 57.2% upside from US$25.06 to US$39.40 sits alongside recent dilution and ongoing losses, so the bearish concern about valuation risk is balanced by targets that assume the market will keep paying for growth despite current unprofitability.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Alumis's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

With mixed views on Alumis across growth and risk, it helps to move quickly and look through the underlying numbers yourself, then weigh up the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Alumis is still posting sizeable losses against relatively modest revenue and carries a high P/B ratio, so risk remains a central part of the story.

If that mix of ongoing losses and valuation risk feels uncomfortable, it makes sense to balance your watchlist with companies screened for 68 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.