A week ago, Ambiq Micro, Inc. (NYSE:AMBQ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 7.6% better than analyst forecasts at US$34m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.32 per share, were 7.6% smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ambiq Micro's six analysts is for revenues of US$135.1m in 2026. This reflects a major 38% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.50. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$122.5m and losses of US$2.13 per share in 2026. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$85.67, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ambiq Micro analyst has a price target of US$125 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$73.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ambiq Micro's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 91% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 32% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ambiq Micro is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ambiq Micro analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.