Amprius Technologies (AMPX) is back on investors’ radar after reporting Q1 2026 progress that included wider use of its silicon anode batteries, new defense contracts, higher full year revenue guidance, and a new alliance with Matternet.

Those contract wins and the new Matternet alliance come as momentum builds in the stock, with a 1 day share price return of 5.33%, a 90 day share price return of 82.55%, and a year to date share price return of 162.13%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is very large at about 7.6x.

If you think the battery story could keep spreading across markets like aerospace, you might also want to see what is happening in related enablers of automation through our 33 robotics and automation stocks

With Amprius now valued at about US$3.1b and carrying an intrinsic discount estimate of 17% alongside strong recent share price gains, you have to ask whether there is still a buying opportunity here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 19% Overvalued

The most followed valuation narrative pegs Amprius Technologies’ fair value at $19.25, compared with the last close at $22.91, which implies a premium investors need to weigh carefully.

First-mover advantage, validated technology, and policy tailwinds for domestic and friendly-nation battery sourcing (NDAA-compliant, U.S. DoD engagement) position the company to secure long-term supply agreements, helping transition to recurring, higher-margin revenue streams and improving forward earnings quality.

Curious what kind of revenue ramp, margin lift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value? The narrative leans on aggressive scaling, richer profitability, and a premium valuation usually reserved for fast growing leaders. The full story is in how those pieces fit together over the next few years.

Result: Fair Value of $19.25 (OVERVALUED)

However, this hinges on concentrated exposure to aviation and drones, as well as execution on scaling complex silicon anode manufacturing, either of which could quickly challenge that upbeat scenario.

Another View: Cash Flows Point The Other Way

While the popular narrative suggests Amprius Technologies is about 19% overvalued at $22.91 versus a fair value of $19.25, our DCF model points in the opposite direction. On that approach, the stock trades at roughly a 17% discount to an estimated future cash flow value of $27.71.

Two valuation frameworks, two different answers. Which set of assumptions about growth, profitability, and risk feels more realistic to you, and what would need to change before you switched sides?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Amprius Technologies for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 46 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on value, sentiment, and execution risk, this is a moment to move quickly and test the story against the numbers yourself using 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.