The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Spectral AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDAI), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$4.0m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.11 some 57% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Spectral AI's three analysts is for revenues of US$18.7m in 2026. This reflects a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.53 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$18.9m and losses of US$0.50 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Spectral AI after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$4.67, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Spectral AI analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Spectral AI's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Spectral AI to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Spectral AI going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Spectral AI is showing 6 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those are concerning...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.