Investors in The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAIN) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.2% to close at US$0.78 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$338m, statutory losses exploded to US$1.17 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Hain Celestial Group, is for revenues of US$1.17b in 2027. This implies a chunky 19% reduction in Hain Celestial Group's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 98% to US$0.095 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.20b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.027 in 2027. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Hain Celestial Group, administering a small dip in to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$1.41, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hain Celestial Group at US$3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$0.50. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Hain Celestial Group's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 16% to the end of 2027. This tops off a historical decline of 5.7% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 2.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Hain Celestial Group to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Hain Celestial Group dropped from profits to a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hain Celestial Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.