One thing we could say about the analysts on The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

After the downgrade, the eleven analysts covering Carlyle Group are now predicting revenues of US$3.8b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 17% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 142% to US$3.67. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.53 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Carlyle Group's prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$60.56 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Carlyle Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 23% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 16% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.5% per year. So it looks like Carlyle Group is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Carlyle Group after the downgrade.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Carlyle Group's business, like concerns around earnings quality. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 1 other risk we've identified.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.