Janux Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:JANX) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$10m missing forecasts by 43%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$0.35 some 36% below prior forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Janux Therapeutics after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Janux Therapeutics' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$26.4m in 2026. This reflects a solid 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.79 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$31.6m and losses of US$1.70 per share in 2026. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$36.88, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Janux Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$72.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Janux Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 21% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 23% per year. It's clear that while Janux Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Janux Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.