It's been a sad week for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS), who've watched their investment drop 10% to US$21.36 in the week since the company reported its annual result. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at CN¥65b, statutory losses exploded to CN¥87.51 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from JinkoSolar Holding's six analysts is for revenues of CN¥79.4b in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with JinkoSolar Holding forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.74 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥88.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥12.19 in 2026. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$32.95 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on JinkoSolar Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$66.10 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that JinkoSolar Holding's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 21% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 18% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JinkoSolar Holding is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JinkoSolar Holding going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.