It's been a good week for Kura Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:KURA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.5% to US$9.74. Statutory results overall were mixed, with revenues coming in 30% lower than the analysts predicted. What's really surprising is that losses of US$0.83 per share were pretty much in line with forecasts, despite the revenue miss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kura Oncology from 13 analysts is for revenues of US$97.6m in 2026. If met, it would imply a substantial 36% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$3.51. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$111.4m and losses of US$3.55 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$31.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kura Oncology at US$76.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kura Oncology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 51% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 83% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kura Oncology's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Kura Oncology's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kura Oncology analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Kura Oncology has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.