Investors in 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FDMT) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.4% to close at US$10.14 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were 73% better than analyst models forecast, at US$3.0m. Perhaps unsurprisingly, statutory losses were also slightly larger than expected, at US$1.01 per share, reflecting the higher costs which were likely incurred in generating that revenue. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the consensus from 4D Molecular Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$15.0m in 2026, which would reflect a substantial 83% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.92 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.86m and losses of US$3.59 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts significantly increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase. It looks like the top line growth will not be achieved without incremental costs.

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$28.22, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on 4D Molecular Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$36.00 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 91% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 32% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that 4D Molecular Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at 4D Molecular Therapeutics. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for 4D Molecular Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - 4D Molecular Therapeutics has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.