It's been a good week for ADC Therapeutics SA (NYSE:ADCT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.1% to US$3.86. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$21m in revenue arriving 4.3% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.21, some 4.1% below consensus predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ADC Therapeutics from six analysts is for revenues of US$81.4m in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 2.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 21% to US$0.85. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$80.0m and US$0.80 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on ADC Therapeutics after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

The consensus price target held steady at US$8.20, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on ADC Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ADC Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ADC Therapeutics.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at ADC Therapeutics. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ADC Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.