The yearly results for MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE:MDU) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. MDU Resources Group missed revenue estimates by 2.5%, coming in atUS$1.9b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93 beat expectations, coming in 4.5% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, MDU Resources Group's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.99b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.1% to US$0.97. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.04 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$21.83, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MDU Resources Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MDU Resources Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that MDU Resources Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 6.1% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 31% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.4% annually. So while MDU Resources Group's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MDU Resources Group. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MDU Resources Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MDU Resources Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that MDU Resources Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.