Investors in Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STOK) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.3% to close at US$31.93 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues of US$9.3m crushed expectations, although expenses increased commensurately, with statutory losses hitting US$0.93 per share, -19% above what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Stoke Therapeutics from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$30.2m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 9.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$3.71 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$24.3m and losses of US$3.28 per share in 2026. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$45.82, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Stoke Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$60.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Stoke Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stoke Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 62% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 23% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Stoke Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Stoke Therapeutics will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$45.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Stoke Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Stoke Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.