Anchor Capital sees extended Fed pause as supply shocks fade, disinflation returns

  • Anchor Capital flagged a shift in US inflation drivers, favoring an extended Fed pause as demand-led price pressures cool.
  • Near-term inflation seen volatile on tariffs, energy disruption, geopolitical risk; shocks expected to fade without persistent second-round effects.
  • Cyclical core PCE inflation near pre-pandemic norms; recent firmness concentrated in acyclical components that rate policy cannot readily restrain.
  • AI-driven productivity upshift supports disinflationary growth; output per hour near a 3% annual rate, unit labor cost growth below 2%.
  • Base case points to the next meaningful policy move being a cut, potentially as early as 2027, improving the medium-term backdrop for bonds, stocks.


Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd published the original content used to generate this news brief on June 23, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.

This page is machine-translated. Sahm tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation. *Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal position and opinion and does not represent any position of Sahm Capital Financial Company and Sahm cannot confirm the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content. Investors should consider the risks of investment products in light of their circumstances before making any investment decisions. When necessary, please consult a professional investment advisor. Sahm does not provide any investment advice, nor does it make any commitments and guarantees.