Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo predicted Congress will pass the CLARITY Act once lawmakers settle a fight over crypto ethics rules, even as Polymarket traders now give the bill just a 17% chance of becoming law this year.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday, Cuomo, who sits on the board of crypto exchange OKX and co-chairs its new joint venture with NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), said lawmakers have worked through most substantive issues.

The remaining dispute, he said, centers on Democratic demands to limit President Donald Trump’s ability to profit from crypto. “I think they will resolve this ethics issue and they’ll pass the bill,” Cuomo said.

Traders disagree. Odds on Polymarket’s contract tracking whether the bill is signed into law in 2026 have collapsed from near 74% in May to roughly 17%, with the Senate scheduled to recess Aug. 10 and no floor vote on the calendar.

‘You Can’t Have 50 Separate States With Separate Rules’

Cuomo, a former New York attorney general, cast himself as a regulator turned industry participant frustrated by the lack of a federal framework.

“Tell me the rules,” Cuomo said. “I want to play the game fairly, but you have to tell me the boundaries.”

Cuomo also weighed in on New York’s lawsuit against Kalshi, filed July 31 by Attorney General Letitia James, which alleges the platform runs an unlicensed gambling operation. Kalshi maintains its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the CFTC.

Without federal preemption, Cuomo argued, state attorneys general enforce their own interpretations. “In a void, you create chaos,” he said, adding that federal regulators will likely predominate because “you can’t have 50 separate states with separate rules.”

CLARITY does not directly cover prediction markets, but Cuomo used the Kalshi fight to argue for national rules.

A Contested Messenger

Host Andrew Ross Sorkin pressed Cuomo on OKX’s guilty plea to one count of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, which resulted in more than $504 million in fines and forfeiture.

Cuomo blamed unclear rules, saying the government was “making rules by enforcement actions.”

Federal prosecutors said OKX knowingly served U.S. customers for years and that employees sometimes advised customers to provide false information to circumvent its KYC controls.

Cuomo’s own ethics record has drawn scrutiny.

He disbanded the Moreland anti-corruption commission in 2014 amid reports his office interfered with its work, and resigned as governor in 2021 following sexual harassment allegations, which he denied.

ICE, meanwhile, holds stakes in both OKX and Polymarket.

It invested an undisclosed amount in OKX and $1.6 billion directly in Polymarket, under an arrangement originally allowing for an investment of up to $2 billion.

Image: Shutterstock

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.