By Staff Writer

Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interest is expected to rise by 40% year-on-year (YoY) but fall 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to SAR 119.6 billion ($31.85 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, according to AlJazira Capital.

The earnings will be 3.6% lower than the adjusted net profit reported in Q1 2026, driven by a decline in the topline amid lower upstream volumes despite an increase in oil prices.

Revenue is expected to rise 12.6% YoY but decline 1.9% QoQ to SAR 458.5 billion. Upstream revenue is projected to fall 5.7% QoQ to SAR 193.5 billion due to a sharp decline in sales volumes affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The downstream revenue is forecast to inch up by 0.7% QoQ to SAR 263.2 billion, supported by an improvement in refining margins, offset by lower volumes.

Brent crude prices averaged $96.7 per barrel in Q2 2026 (+21.5% QoQ).

“We forecast realised crude oil prices for Aramco in Q2 2026 to average at $99.6 per barrel (+29.5% Q/Q),” the report said.

Total hydrocarbon production is expected to decline to 10.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in Q2 2026 from 12.6 mmboed in the previous quarter, impacted by regional geopolitical escalations and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Gas production is expected to remain largely stable.

“We expect average crude oil prices this year to be higher by 25% YoY, while Aramco’s flexibility to divert exports from east to west coast will limit the drop in crude oil volumes (-11.0% YoY),” the report said.

The average oil price is estimated at around $85 per barrel.

AlJazira Capital retained its “Overweight” rating on Aramco stock and a target price of SAR 29.6 per share.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com )