Archer Aviation (ACHR) has just moved into Phase 3 of 4 in the FAA Type Certification process for its Midnight aircraft, and it has also launched a dual-use autonomous vertical-lift program with Anduril focused on defense and AI.

The latest certification milestone and defense partnership news arrives after a sharp pullback, with Archer’s 7 day share price return down 21.07% and its 1 year total shareholder return down 53.25%. This suggests momentum has cooled even as institutional interest and FAA progress keep the long term story in focus.

If this kind of early stage aerospace and AI story interests you, it can be useful to compare Archer with other next generation aviation and automation companies via the 33 robotics and automation stocks

With the stock down sharply over the past year, yet trading at a sizeable discount to some valuation estimates, the key question for you is simple: Is Archer underappreciated here, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 73.5% Undervalued

According to the most followed thesis on Archer, the fair value sits at $20.04 per share versus a last close of $5.32. This frames a large valuation gap for investors to judge.

Archer Aviation is positioned to be the first to scale in the trillion-dollar Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market. Unlike competitors struggling with "production hell," Archer has solved the manufacturing equation through its strategic partnership with Stellantis, which is funding and building Archer's high-volume factory in Georgia. With a robust order book (United Airlines) and a clear path to FAA certification for its "Midnight" aircraft in 2025/2026, the current valuation reflects "bankruptcy risk" rather than "commercial launch" potential.

Want to see why this thesis points to such a big gap between today’s price and that $20.04 figure? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, richer long term margins and a future earnings multiple more in line with scaled aerospace platforms than pre revenue prototypes.

Result: Fair Value of $20.04 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story can break if FAA timelines slip or if losses stay high relative to Archer’s US$1.9 million in revenue and US$742.5 million net loss.

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Next Steps

If this mix of risks and potential rewards leaves you uncertain, act promptly, review the details, and weigh the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop your research with a single stock. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not relying on just one story to shape your portfolio.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.