Arkea AM sees possible euro zone rate hike in June as PMI slips below 50

  • Arkea Asset Management flagged a widening policy split, with Fed holding rates as US activity stayed firm, highlighted by weekly jobless claims at 214,000 and retail sales up 1.7%.
  • Euro zone data pointed to a sharper slowdown, with composite PMI at 48.6 and services at 47.4, keeping markets focused on risk of a June rate increase.
  • Germany investor sentiment deteriorated, with ZEW at -17.2, while government cut 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 and lifted inflation view to 2.7%.
  • US equities rebounded on AI-driven momentum, with more than USD 200 billion of inflows into US stocks over three weeks, while Europe lagged.
  • Bond markets stayed rangebound ahead of four major central bank decisions, with pricing skewed toward broad policy hold and attention on messaging around energy inflation persistence.


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