Arrow Electronics, Inc. (NYSE:ARW) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Arrow Electronics delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$9.5b-14% above indicated-andUS$4.55-115% above forecasts- respectively This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Arrow Electronics are now predicting revenues of US$38.4b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 26% to US$10.52 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$35.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.38 in 2026. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.

The analysts increased their price target 22% to US$187, perhaps signalling that higher revenues are a strong leading indicator for Arrow Electronics's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arrow Electronics at US$240 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$122. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Arrow Electronics is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 20% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.5% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually. So it looks like Arrow Electronics is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Arrow Electronics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Arrow Electronics has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.