ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) opened Q1 2026 with trailing 12 month revenue of about US$84.3 million and a reported loss of roughly US$171.3 million, translating to basic EPS of about US$1.74 loss, while the stock trades around US$7.43. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$7.97 million in Q1 2025 to US$28.09 million in Q4 2025, with basic EPS shifting from a loss of US$0.35 in Q1 2025 to a loss of US$0.42 in Q4 2025. This sets up a story where rising revenue is still being weighed against heavy losses and pressured margins.

See our full analysis for ARS Pharmaceuticals.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this mix of growing revenue and continued losses lines up against the prevailing growth and profitability narratives around SPRY.

Losses of US$171.3 million on US$84.3 million in revenue

• Over the latest trailing 12 months, ARS reported about US$84.3 million in revenue against a net loss of roughly US$171.3 million, so the company is still spending far more than it is bringing in.
• Consensus narrative highlights strong demand drivers for neffy, such as growing pediatric and school adoption and international launches. However, the trailing 12 month loss profile shows that higher revenue alone has not been enough to offset operating costs and that earnings are still well below the levels analysts are debating for 2029.
  • Analysts as a group are talking about revenue reaching US$428.2 million and earnings of US$25.4 million by 2029, which sits in sharp contrast to the current US$171.3 million loss.
  • This gap between where earnings are today and where analysts expect them to go is a key issue for you to judge when thinking about how durable any revenue growth from neffy might be.

Forecast 79.5% earnings growth with wider five year losses

• Modelled figures show earnings are forecast to grow about 79.54% per year with an expectation of profitability within three years, even though losses have grown at roughly 31.4% per year over the past five years.
• Bulls argue that factors like an 88.3% annual revenue growth outlook over the next three years and a swing in margins from about a 203.3% loss today to 19.4% by 2029 strongly back a turnaround story. The current loss track record, however, keeps that view heavily dependent on forecasts rather than past earnings quality.
  • The bullish narrative points to potential 2029 earnings of US$108.9 million versus the present US$171.3 million loss, which would be a very large swing in profitability.
  • To line up with the more optimistic price target assumptions, bulls are effectively accepting a P/E of 39.8x on those future earnings, which is much higher than the 17.5x cited for the US Biotechs industry.

Have a closer look at how optimistic investors frame that potential earnings swing and what would need to go right for it to play out 🐂 ARS Pharmaceuticals Bull Case.

P/S of 8.7x with DCF fair value at US$81.77

• On valuation metrics, the stock at about US$7.43 trades on a P/S of 8.7x, which sits below the cited peer average of 12.2x and the US Biotechs industry at 10.9x, while a DCF fair value is given as US$81.77, far above the current price.
• Bears focus on the 31.4% five year loss growth rate and the fact that some analyst scenarios do not expect profitability within three years, arguing that even with a lower P/S and a high DCF fair value, the concentration in a single product and heavy SG&A spending, including US$54.3 million last quarter, could make it harder for the company to reach the US$50.5 million of 2029 earnings used in the more cautious models.
  • In the more cautious setup, the company would still need to trade at a P/E of 30.4x on that US$50.5 million earnings figure, which is higher than the 15.1x industry P/E cited for US Biotechs.
  • When current losses of US$171.3 million are set against these earnings and P/E assumptions, bears see a lot of execution risk between today’s numbers and the earnings levels implied by the 26.2 analyst price target.

If you want to stress test those concerns against the latest figures and see where the more cautious investors are focused, it is worth reviewing their detailed case 🐻 ARS Pharmaceuticals Bear Case.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ARS Pharmaceuticals on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of optimism and risk has you on the fence, look through the numbers yourself, pressure test the narratives, and then weigh up the 2 key rewards.

See What Else Is Out There

SPRY is still carrying a US$171.3 million loss on US$84.3 million of revenue, with forecasts and single product reliance leaving plenty of execution risk.

If that level of uncertainty feels uncomfortable, you can quickly compare SPRY with companies that have steadier earnings and lower risk profiles by checking out 66 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.