Why AerCap Holdings (AER) Is On Investor Radars Today

AerCap Holdings (AER), a global aircraft leasing and aviation services company, is drawing attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed returns over the past week, month, and past 3 months.

At a share price of $140.07, AerCap’s recent 1 day and 1 month share price declines sit against a much stronger backdrop, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 44.67% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 226.82%, suggesting longer term momentum has been significantly stronger than the latest pullback.

If recent moves in AerCap have you thinking about what else could be on your radar, it may be worth sizing up our screener of 22 top founder-led companies as a fresh source of ideas.

With AerCap trading at $140.07 and sitting around 10% below the average analyst price target while also showing an intrinsic value premium, investors may ask whether there is still an opportunity at the current price or whether the market is already accounting for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.8% Undervalued

With AerCap’s fair value narrative sitting at $153.67 against the last close of $140.07, the current price sits below what this widely followed view implies.

Expansion of ancillary services, particularly AerCap's spare engine leasing and new engine/MRO partnerships such as the Air France-KLM JV, diversify revenue sources and add higher-margin income streams, positively impacting overall earnings growth.

Curious what kind of revenue mix, margins, and future earnings power are baked into that fair value estimate? The full narrative spells out the cash flow path and the profit multiple needed for AerCap’s price to line up with those assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $153.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on tight aircraft supply and healthy airline customers. A shift in either could pressure lease rates, asset values, and earnings.

Another Angle On Value

While the fair value narrative suggests AerCap is undervalued at $153.67 versus the $140.07 share price, our DCF model points in a different direction, with an estimate of $113.44. On that view, the stock screens as overvalued. Which story do you think fits the risks and cash flows better?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AerCap Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you look at these numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply want to rely on your own work, you can build a tailored AerCap story in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If AerCap has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to find other opportunities that fit your style and goals.

• Target potential value opportunities by scanning our list of 52 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with attractive pricing signals.
• Prioritise resilience with 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on our risk checks and may help you keep portfolio swings under control.
• Hunt for future standouts using our screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems that most investors are not paying attention to yet.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.