Ares Management (ARES) has been in the spotlight after outlining its growth vision at the 2026 RBC Capital Markets Conference, including plans in digital infrastructure, renewable energy, sports assets and Asia focused private credit.

The recent conference commentary and Asia private credit launch sit against a weaker tape, with a 30 day share price return of negative 24.62% and a 90 day share price return of negative 41.51%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of 115.04% remains positive, suggesting long term holders have still seen gains while short term momentum has been fading.

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With Ares shares down sharply over 1 year yet still showing a positive 5 year total return and trading below the average analyst price target, investors may wonder whether this weakness represents a potential opportunity or whether the market is already fully accounting for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 39.4% Undervalued

At $103.46, Ares Management screens well below a narrative fair value of $170.59. That estimate hinges on stronger earnings power, stable margins and a higher long term valuation multiple.

The updated analyst price target for Ares Management moves lower, with our fair value estimate shifting from $177.94 to $170.59 as analysts factor in reduced expectations for business development company flows and realizations, as well as recent industry wide concerns around private credit, even as some still highlight what they see as attractive entry points for credit focused alternative managers.

Curious what underpins that higher fair value? The narrative leans on faster earnings growth, firm margins and a richer future earnings multiple than the broader capital markets group. Want to see how those moving parts fit together?

Result: Fair Value of $170.59 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat narrative could be challenged if fee pressure from intense private credit competition, or higher redemptions from retail focused vehicles, start to bite.

Another Angle: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal

That narrative fair value of $170.59 suggests upside, but the current P/E of 49.5x is well above the US Capital Markets industry at 22.9x, peers at 15.3x, and even our fair ratio of 22.1x. With such a big gap, is the market pricing in too much, or are the narratives still too cautious?

Next Steps

Seeing mixed signals so far and not sure where you land? Take a moment to review the full picture yourself, including 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you want to round out your watchlist beyond Ares Management, it is worth checking a few focused stock lists that highlight very different types of opportunities.

• Target dependable income by scanning companies we flag as potential income anchors through our 14 dividend fortresses.
• Hunt for quality on sale by checking companies that appear attractively priced in our 50 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritize resilience by reviewing companies we highlight for stronger financial footing using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (41 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.