What triggered the latest move in Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)?

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is back in focus after reporting a sizeable quarterly and full year 2025 loss, weaker steel pricing, and ongoing margin pressure, followed by a sharp share price drop and fresh analyst caution.

The company has described 2025 as a reset year, with investors weighing recent results, the CEO’s multimillion share sale, and downgrades that highlight earnings and market risks against management’s plans to improve profitability.

The sharp post earnings drop has capped a weak run for Cleveland-Cliffs, with a 7 day share price return of a 29.53% decline and a year to date share price return of a 23.68% decline. The 3 year total shareholder return of a 47.63% decline shows that pressure has been building over a longer period as investors reassess risks around steel pricing, margins, and recent insider selling.

If this pullback has you looking beyond a single steel producer, it could be a good moment to scan 8 top copper producer stocks as potential metal and mining peers to research next.

With the share price down sharply, a value score of 5, and the stock trading below the average analyst target, the key question is whether this is a reset-year bargain or if the market already reflects future recovery hopes.

Most Popular Narrative: 22.8% Undervalued

At a last close of $10.38 versus a narrative fair value of $13.44, Cleveland-Cliffs is framed as undervalued, with that gap tied directly to future earnings power and margin repair rather than current loss making results.

New investments in higher-margin stainless and specialty steels, buoyed by infrastructure investment, electrification, and clean-energy buildout, will expand Cleveland-Cliffs' addressable markets and support lasting product mix improvement, increasing revenue growth and supporting higher average selling prices.

Want to see what sits behind that optimism on pricing, volume, and margins? The narrative hinges on specific revenue paths, margin rebuilding, and an earnings multiple that has been carefully benchmarked. Curious how those moving parts combine to support a higher fair value than where the stock trades today? The full narrative lays out the step by step assumptions so you can judge whether they stack up.

Result: Fair Value of $13.44 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat story still hinges on steel tariffs holding and Cleveland-Cliffs managing its higher-cost blast furnace footprint in a market that is shifting toward cleaner, scrap-based EAF capacity.

Build Your Own Cleveland-Cliffs Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or just prefer to work from your own assumptions, you can build a custom view of Cleveland-Cliffs in a few minutes and Do it your way

A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Cleveland-Cliffs has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, this can be a good moment to widen your search and see what other opportunities stand out.

• Spot potential value plays early by scanning 53 high quality undervalued stocks that line up strong fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their current profile.
• Prioritise staying power by reviewing solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results) that pair financial resilience with business models built to handle tougher conditions.
• Hunt for lesser known opportunities by checking our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems that many investors may not be watching yet.

If you skip these ideas now, you may miss stocks that better fit your risk profile and long term goals than Cleveland-Cliffs alone can offer.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.