Recent earnings and shareholder returns in focus

IDT (IDT) has drawn fresh attention after reporting third quarter results, alongside a dividend declaration and ongoing capital return plans, prompting investors to reassess the stock following recent mixed share price performance.

At a share price of $55.50, IDT has recently gained momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 6.4% and a 90 day share price return of 12.9%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return is still down 15.6%, compared with a much stronger 3 year total shareholder return of 113.4% that reflects how sentiment has shifted over time.

If IDT's recent earnings and capital returns have caught your eye, it can be helpful to compare them with other communication focused businesses and check out 19 top founder-led companies

With IDT trading at $55.50, a modeled intrinsic value suggesting only a modest 6.3% discount, and a much larger gap versus the $75 analyst target, you have to ask: is there really upside left here, or is the stock already pricing in future growth?

P/E of 16.9x: Is it justified?

On simple price terms IDT screens as slightly rich, with a P/E of 16.9x that is above both its peer group and the broader global telecom industry, even though the SWS DCF model points to a fair value close to the current $55.50 share price.

The P/E ratio compares what you pay today for each dollar of current earnings. For a communications and fintech focused business like IDT, a higher P/E typically signals that investors are putting a higher value on current profitability and potential future earnings, rather than treating it like a low growth, purely utility style telecom stock.

Here the valuation gap is clear. IDT's P/E of 16.9x is described as expensive versus the global telecom industry average of 16.7x, and looks even richer against a peer average of 5.6x. It also sits above an estimated fair P/E of 14.4x, which is the level the market could move toward if sentiment or growth expectations cool from current assumptions.

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 16.9x (OVERVALUED)

However, the continued revenue decline of 2.0% alongside a 15.6% drop in 1 year total return could quickly challenge optimism around the higher P/E and growth expectations.

Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page.

Another view on value

While the 16.9x P/E suggests IDT is pricing in a lot of optimism, our DCF model tells a softer story. With the share price at $55.50 and the SWS DCF value at $59.21, the stock looks only modestly undervalued rather than clearly expensive or cheap.

That small gap raises a practical question for you as an investor: is the current price close enough to fair that short term swings in sentiment or earnings expectations could matter more than any valuation edge?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out IDT for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between recent share price pressure and earlier strong long term returns, this is a good time to look through the data yourself, weigh the trade off between risk and reward, and then decide if IDT suits your approach by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If IDT is only one part of your watchlist, now is the moment to widen your search with focused stock ideas that match different investing goals.

• Target potential mispricing by scanning for companies that combine quality with value using the 47 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income stream by checking stocks offering robust yields and consistency through the 9 dividend fortresses.
• Protect your capital by reviewing companies with steadier risk profiles via the 63 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.