Earnings, guidance, and buybacks reshape the Macy's (M) story

Macy's (M) is back in focus after issuing 2026 earnings guidance, reporting fourth quarter and full year results, and updating investors on the completion of a multi year share repurchase program.

Macy's recent 2026 guidance, Q4 earnings, and completion of the buyback program have all landed against a mixed backdrop, with a 7 day share price return of 4.56% alongside a 30 day share price return of 20.26% and year to date share price return of 21.45%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 34.10% points to longer term holders still sitting on gains, suggesting momentum has cooled after a strong run as investors reassess both growth prospects in areas like Bloomingdale's and evolving risks around store closures and consumer demand.

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With Macy's shares near US$17.87, trading at a discount to the average analyst price target and a sizable gap to some intrinsic value estimates, you have to ask whether the stock is still undervalued or if future growth is already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 26.9% Undervalued

With Macy's shares at $17.87 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $24.43, the gap between price and narrative value is clear and hard to ignore.

Macy’s owns significant real estate that can be sold to provide liquidity, pay down debt, and finance new investments. The firm intends to raise about $600 million-$750 million from real estate sales over the next three years.

That fair value is not a back of the envelope guess. It leans on projected revenue growth, steadier profit margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes investors keep rewarding consistent cash generation.

Result: Fair Value of $24.43 (UNDERVALUED)

However, store closures that fail to lift profitability, as well as any stalled takeover interest, could both chip away at confidence in the current undervaluation case.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around value, growth, and risk can be hard to weigh, so use this as a starting point and move quickly to test the case against your own expectations and risk tolerance with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.