Why the MicroVision and Avular partnership matters for MVIS stock

MicroVision (MVIS) recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Avular Innovations to combine its lidar and perception software with Avular’s modular drone platforms, targeting commercial uses such as civil infrastructure inspections and public safety.

Despite the Avular agreement and an upcoming first quarter 2026 update, MicroVision’s share price sits at US$0.62 after a 6% 1-day share price decline, a 3.3% 30-day share price gain, and a 46.4% 1-year total shareholder return loss. This suggests recent momentum has been weak.

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With the stock at about US$0.62, a market cap near US$214 million, minimal reported revenue and a recent shelf registration of US$38.6 million, you have to ask: is there real upside here or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 99% Undervalued

According to the most followed narrative, MicroVision’s fair value of $60 sits far above the last close at about $0.62. This creates a wide gap investors will want to understand.

For years, the market has viewed MicroVision (NASDAQ:MVIS) through a single, narrow lens: a high-risk, pre-revenue bet on automotive LIDAR. This has resulted in a valuation that, in our view, fails to capture the strategic pivot currently underway. The company is no longer a monolithic bet on a single industry. It is transforming into a multi-vertical technology supplier with distinct, non-correlated revenue streams.

Curious how a company with minimal reported revenue and ongoing losses can support that kind of fair value? The narrative leans on sizeable future revenues, rising margins and a very rich earnings multiple to bridge today’s business to that $60 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $60 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this narrative could be challenged if expected defense contracts do not materialise or if rival lidar technologies make MicroVision’s products less compelling to key customers.

Another View: What the Market Is Paying Today

The $60 fair value narrative presents MicroVision as 99% undervalued, yet the current P/B of 3.6x is higher than both the US Electronic industry at 2.3x and the peer average at 1.7x. With no profits and minimal revenue, is the stock already pricing in a lot of hope?

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and skepticism leaves you unsure, use the numbers to pressure test the story for yourself and move quickly if your view shifts. Start with the 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.