Newell Brands (NWL) is drawing fresh attention after unveiling a Toy Story 5 themed Sharpie and Elmer’s collection with Disney and Pixar, a marketing driven collaboration that could influence how investors view the stock.

The Toy Story 5 collaboration lands after a volatile stretch, with a 30 day share price return of 25% and a year to date share price gain of 19.62%. This is set against a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 10.18%, which underlines how longer term performance has been weak even as short term momentum has picked up.

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With the stock up strongly over the past month yet still carrying weak multi year returns and trading below some analyst targets, the key question is whether Newell Brands is still unloved value or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.9% Undervalued

At a last close of $4.45 versus a narrative fair value of $5.05, Newell Brands is framed as undervalued, with that gap pinned on future earnings repair rather than recent Toy Story headlines.

Aggressive ongoing cost-saving initiatives, productivity improvements, and ERP system harmonization are expected to enable structural operating margin expansion, drive sustainable EBITDA and EPS growth, and ultimately improve the company's leverage profile.

Want to see what is baked into that earnings rebuild story? The narrative leans on margin repair, steadier revenue, and a future profit multiple that sits below the sector. The exact mix of assumptions may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $5.05 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on revenue pressure easing and on high net leverage not becoming a bigger problem if consumer demand or trade policies move against Newell Brands.

Next Steps

Mixed signals or early recovery story? If you think both risk and reward are on the table here, move quickly and size them up with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.