Recent analyst moves on Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), including an upgrade from Goldman Sachs and reaffirmed optimism from JPMorgan, have drawn fresh attention to the refiner’s earnings in Hawaii and its mainland asset potential.

Par Pacific’s share price has pulled back 2.0% over the last day but still carries a strong 81.2% 3 month share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return is very large relative to those shorter term moves. Recent analyst upgrades appear to reflect how investors are reassessing both earnings quality and the perceived risk around its refining and logistics footprint at the current share price of $63.79.

If you are looking for other energy related ideas, this could be a good moment to scan the broader power and infrastructure space using our 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With the shares up sharply over 3 months, trading at $63.79 and sitting about 10% below the average analyst target of $70.29, plus a flagged intrinsic discount, is there still mispricing here, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued

Par Pacific Holdings' most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $70.13 per share versus the recent $63.79 close, putting the focus squarely on how future cash flows and discount rates stack up against that gap.

The strategic partnership with Mitsubishi and ENEOS, along with the upcoming SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) project launch, positions Par Pacific for growth in renewable fuels; this enhances market access, leverages global feedstock procurement expertise, and is expected to positively contribute to earnings and net margin expansion starting in 2026.

Curious what kind of revenue path and profit margins sit behind that valuation jump, and how a future P/E multiple ties it all together? The narrative lays out a detailed earnings glide path, assumes a step down in profitability, and still arrives at a premium multiple that lines up with the broader US oil and gas group. The mix of shrinking top line, lower margins, and a higher future multiple is what really matters here.

Result: Fair Value of $70.13 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh up concentration in Hawaii and Western US markets, as well as aging refinery assets that could keep maintenance costs and outages in focus.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play, it pays to check the full picture yourself and move quickly while sentiment is still shifting. You can start with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you risk missing other opportunities that fit your goals. Use screeners to quickly focus on companies that match your criteria.

• Target potential upside with a focus on quality by scanning 55 high quality undervalued stocks that pair strong fundamentals with prices below their estimated worth.
• Build steadier income potential by reviewing 13 dividend fortresses that combine higher yields with an emphasis on durability.
• Prioritise resilience by checking 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores that keep risk scores in check while still offering room for returns.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.