• If you are wondering whether Patria Investments is attractively priced right now, this article will walk through how its current share price compares with a few common valuation yardsticks.
• The stock last closed at US$13.50, after a 3.6% decline over the past week and a 15.4% decline over the last month, while the 1-year return sits at 23.5%.
• Recent news flow around Patria Investments has largely centered on its role as a listed alternative asset manager and its exposure to Latin American private markets. This helps frame how investors think about its earnings quality and fee-based cash flows, and it often influences how the market prices asset managers, especially when sentiment around private market fundraising and deployment shifts.
• On our simple valuation checklist, Patria Investments scores 1 out of 6, and you can see the breakdown in our valuation score. Next, we will compare different valuation approaches and then finish with a broader way to think about what the current price really implies.

Patria Investments scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Patria Investments Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to generate over and above the return that shareholders require, and then adds that stream of “excess” profit to today’s book value per share.

For Patria Investments, the model starts with a Book Value of $3.91 per share and a Stable EPS estimate of $0.68 per share, based on the median return on equity from the past 5 years. The Average Return on Equity used in the model is 18.40%, applied to a Stable Book Value of $3.68 per share that comes from weighted future book value estimates from 3 analysts.

The Cost of Equity is set at $0.29 per share, which implies an Excess Return of $0.38 per share after compensating shareholders for their required return. Aggregating these excess returns produces an intrinsic value estimate of about $12.10 per share under this model.

Compared with the recent share price of $13.50, the Excess Returns model suggests the stock is around 11.5% overvalued on this basis.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Patria Investments may be overvalued by 11.5%. Discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Patria Investments Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Patria Investments, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to check how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on what they expect for future growth and how much risk they see around those earnings.

Patria currently trades on a P/E of 25.15x. That sits above the Capital Markets industry average of 23.44x and the peer group average of 17.73x. On the surface, that suggests the market is asking you to pay a richer price for Patria’s earnings than for many of its listed peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Patria is 16.05x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might look like given the company’s earnings profile, its industry, profit margins, size and identified risks. Because it folds these factors into a single figure, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with broad industry or peer averages.

Set against the current 25.15x P/E, the 16.05x Fair Ratio points to Patria trading on a higher multiple than this framework would suggest.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Patria Investments Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you turn your view of Patria Investments into a clear story that links what you think about its fund raising, margins and acquisition plans to a set of revenue, earnings and margin forecasts, a fair value, and a simple comparison with today’s price. All of this is available in an accessible tool on the Community page that updates when new news or earnings arrive. You can see, for example, how one investor who leans toward the higher US$18.00 analyst target and a higher future P/E of 15.39x might end up with a different fair value and decision than another investor who aligns more with the lower US$14.00 target, expects revenue growth closer to 14.77% and a profit margin of 38.47%, and therefore reaches a different conclusion about whether the current market price looks attractive or stretched.

Do you think there's more to the story for Patria Investments? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.