What recent returns say about Republic Services

Republic Services (RSG) traded around $209.22 at the last close, with the stock showing a 0.4% gain over the past day but a 2.3% decline over the past week.

Over the past month, Republic Services has recorded a 4.5% decline. The past three months show a 2.7% decline, set against a roughly flat year-to-date performance and a 15.2% negative total return over one year.

Recent trading points to fading near term momentum for the share price, while the 3 year total shareholder return of 48.6% and 5 year total shareholder return of 101.3% underline how different short and long term experiences can be.

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With the share price easing back after a strong multi year run, Republic Services now trades at a discount to both some analyst targets and one intrinsic value estimate. This raises the question of whether there is a genuine opening here or if the market is already assuming further growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.7% Undervalued

At a last close of $209.22 against a narrative fair value of $245.38, Republic Services is framed as underpriced relative to its modeled future cash generation and growth path.

Sustainability efforts such as the development of Polymer Centers and the Blue Polymers joint venture could drive future revenue growth by enhancing plastic circularity and decarbonization. These operations are expected to contribute to earnings starting in the second half of 2025.

Want to see how a waste and recycling group gets priced like a premium compounder? The narrative leans heavily on steady revenue expansion, fatter margins, and a richer future earnings multiple than the wider Commercial Services space.

Result: Fair Value of $245.38 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat narrative can be knocked off course if organic volumes stay weak or if the planned US$1b acquisition pipeline proves harder to integrate.

Another Way To Look At Republic Services

While the narrative and DCF style fair value of $245.38 point to upside, the current P/E of 30.2x sits well above both the US Commercial Services average of 22.7x and an estimated fair ratio of 25.5x. That leaves less room for error if growth or margins fall short. Which signal matters more to you right now?

Next Steps

With mixed signals on value and sentiment, it makes sense to look under the hood yourself and decide how compelling the balance of risks and rewards really feels. To see the full picture, including both the potential upsides and the issues investors are watching, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Republic Services has you thinking more carefully about where to put your money next, broaden your watchlist now so you do not overlook other potential opportunities.

• Target stability first and focus on companies that score well for resilience by checking out 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
• Hunt for quality at a sensible price and see which companies currently screen as 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.